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The New P4 Northwood Processor
In Q3 of 2001, Intel will ship Northwood, a die shrink to 0.13
micron which may also include some architectural tweaks to improve its
computational efficiency (clocks per instruction). The most obvious
tweak though will be to drive its clock speed to astonishing new levels.
It is not unreasonable to assume that this processor will be able to
hit or exceed 2GHz.
When Northwood launches, it will retain its position
at the high end when combined with Intel’s Tehama platform -- enhanced
with the ICH3 south bridge. In addition, the Northwood die shrink
will reduce costs and increase capacity, allowing expansion into the
sub-$2000 mainstream when combined with the new Brookdale chip set supporting
SDRAM. Starting in the first half of ’02, Intel expects to fill its
entire product range above $1000 with Northwood.
In
the generation gap between Willamette and Northwood, Intel will introduce
a package change. The initial PGA423 package for Willamette is depicted
below (423 pins).
Prior to the introduction of Northwood, Intel will introduce Willamette
in a new mPGA478 package, with 55 new additional pins. The dual package
strategy for Willamette is to help ease the transition to Northwood.
Northwood will ship exclusively in the new mPGA478 package for the desktop
market. We presume that these new additional pins are primarily for
the power and ground necessary to run at 2GHz and above. Northwood platforms
will also require a new on-board voltage regulator solution to supply
the processor with new core operating voltages at higher currents.
The New P3 "Tualatin" Processor
Tualatin, as might be expected, is yet another river in Oregon.
It is also Intel’s internal code name for its P3 die shrink to 0.13
micron. Though bigger caches are a possibility, the primary benefits
of this die shrink will be faster clock speeds, lower cost and the option
to move to a faster front side bus (200MHz).
Tualatin will
be ready for production sometime in Q3 ’01 or perhaps late Q2 ’01. The
Almador chip set may be ready to ship before Tualatin, but OEMs will
be able to verify Tualatin compatibility prior to shipping Almador platforms
in volume. The Almador platform will also ship with Coppermine processors.
Intel’s "dead-zone" is clearly indicated by the vacancy in the "Mainstream
3" category of the roadmap from Q3’00 to Q3’01. This is where AMD will
really be able to threaten Intel. Into this cost/performance segment,
AMD will ship its 1GHz – 1.2GHz single processor T'bird-Athlon systems
with low cost PC266 DDR SDRAM. AMD will extend its reach into the performance
segment with a dual processor version of the same DDR platform.
Intel’s only dual processor solution will be the 840/Coppermine, slightly
disadvantaged in clock speed and burdened with RDRAM cost/availability
problems. Willamette is uniprocessor only, and carries the same RDRAM
cost burden. Finally, the 815 is a decidedly midrange product. Intel
seems to have all the corners covered, but has a big hole in the space
between these platforms.
Intel’s difficulties in this vital product range will be eased somewhat
when Tualatin and a fast DDR platform is ready for production. Beginning
in late Q2 ’01 Tualatin can fill in from below, followed by Northwood
filling in from above in Q3 ’01. This will help to close Intel’s very
messy cost/performance gap, but AMD will still have a significant opportunity
to entrench itself in this market space. Still, Intel must figure out
how to respond to the Athlon dual processor threat in the high end PC
and workstation space.
This "dead-zone" will be the acid test for OEMs such as Dell, which
has maintained an Intel-only product mix. If Dell persists in its stance
during this period, it could stand to lose market share in this most
lucrative segment -- one where Dell is currently seen as a leader.
The New ICH3 Chip
In mid 2001, Intel will release its ICH3 chip (south bridge). The
primary new feature of the ICH3 chip is the addition of USB2.0 (six
ports!). Other than that, its primary features seem to be the same as
the ICH2 -- such as ATA100 support, integrated LAN interface, AC97 audio
and modem capabilities, etc.
The ICH3 is
the only point of differentiation between Tehama and TehamaE chip sets.
The north
bridge is constant. Intel will use the availability of the ICH3 as an
additional catalyst to justify a board redesign to migrate from the
P4’s 423-pin package to the 478-pin package.
The ICH3 will show up first on P3 (Coppermine and Tualatin) platforms
using the Almador chip set in mid Q2’01. It will be packaged in a 421
pin BGA.
continue
to page 3:
New Chip
Sets and Summary Analysis
Intel
P4 Platform