Jon
Peddie Associates (JPA), the leading market research firm covering digital
media technology, recently presented their latest market analysis -
the "NT 3D Graphics Workstation Market Study 1999". This comprehensive
study finds the workstation-class graphics controller market will grow
by just 15.6% over the next five years. By 2004, worldwide, the market
will net $2 billion dollars for 1.7 million units shipped. However during
those five years, there will be an uneven unit growth rate due to several
factors.
Besides societal pressures such as episodic recession and an insufficient
number of engineers, growth will progress in jumps and starts due to
the introduction of the new Intel IA-64 based machines, and the resulting
delay of software migrating from IA-32 and Unix.
"The IA-64 will be an alternative to some of the high-end Unix-based
workstations. That will create a new market for the high-end workstation
add-in board (AIB) vendors," said Jon Peddie, president of
Jon Peddie Associates. "However, adoption of the IA-64 architecture
will not be widespread, mostly in high-end servers and workstations.
Competitive products are available from Alpha Inc, and are anticipated
from AMD. The RISC processors from SGI, HP, and SUN will continue to
dominate the 64-bit space."
The study also forecasts that the graphics workstation add-in board
(AIB) market will grow to almost 900,000 units annually over the next
5 years, spread over nine product categories. However this growth will
peak in 2001, at $2.1 billion and then decline to a $1.7 billion dollar
market by 2004 due to falling ASPs. The study found that the add-in-board
market for entry-level workstations is the most in jeopardy from motherboard-based
graphics (integrated controllers with core-logic and standard graphics
controllers integrated on the motherboard). "This is because
high-end workstation AIBs use large amounts of memory and they need
fast immediate access to it." stated Peddie. "Also
their integrated graphics (with core logic) are big, expensive, and
use the latest fabrication techniques. Typically core logic uses n-1
fabrication and is slow to change."
Board costs are not a major factor in the market growth fluctuation.
"The workstation segment does not have enough pent-up demand (due
to the limited number of real users) that there is much price-elasticity,"
commented Peddie. "The workstation segment goes for performance,
availability and then price."
Dr. Peddie also foresees trends in RAM use on AIBs, over the next 5
years, will show the adoption of DDR (Double Data Rate)-SDRAM, and then
Rambus.
DDR SDRAM almost doubles the usable bandwidth between frame buffer and
graphics controller. The DDR interface uses SSTL-2 signaling (Small
Signal Transistor Logic) and has become an industry standard for advanced
frame buffer applications. At clock speeds up to 200 MHz, the device's
bandwidth of up to 1.6 Gigabytes per second and its memory density greatly
improve the cost-performance ratio of advanced graphics boards and systems.
DDR also supports all functions of the latest generation of graphic
controllers offering block write functions and full-page burst modes.
A
single Rambus DRAM (RDRAM) delivers 1.6 Gbytes of data per second over
the Rambus Channel. The RIMM module conforms to the standard DIMM form
factor, but it is not pin-compatible. Its architecture is based on the
electrical requirements of the Direct Rambus Channel, a narrow, high-speed
bus operating at a clock rate of 400MHz, which enables a data rate of
800MHz (data is clocked on both clock edges). A two byte-wide data channel
is used, resulting in the peak data transfer rate of 1.6 Gbytes per
second. The bus uses transmission line characteristics to maintain high
signal integrity. Rambus products use standard CMOS processes, low cost
IC packaging and conventional PC board technologies in order to take
advantage of high volume, low cost manufacturing processes.
Of
course, forecasts outlined in the report are subject to the effects
of unforeseen factors such as the earthquake in Taiwan (which Dr. Peddie
predicts will only affect chip production in the very short-term), drop-outs
by suppliers, technology delays (such as the recent Rambus bug), future
consolidations and mergers, and groundbreaking technological introductions
such as the new NVIDIA GeForce 256 GPU. However, the depth of research
conducted by the JPA team should make the findings extremely accurate.
"For this market study, we undertook a totally unique and comprehensive
methodology," said Jon Peddie. "We realized that important business
decisions were at stake and we wanted to ensure the quality of our data
and predictions. In preparation we reviewed a number of associated markets.
We looked at graphics semiconductor and add-in board manufacturers,
emerging companies and technologies, applications, the number of potential
users and displays. In all, over 120 hardware and software companies,
on three continents were interviewed to collect data."
About the Study
JPA's "NT 3D Graphics Workstation Market Study 1999" is 300-plus
pages and is the only market study available that covers the high end,
professional graphics NT workstation market. Specific topics include:
Market Enablers, The Applications Platform, Total Available Market,
Software Installed Base, The Competitive Landscape, Forecasts for units
shipped, Review of VARs, ASPs and Market Value, Channel Sales and Hardware
Installed Base. Plus, a company directory is included with key contact,
product and corporate information.
The "NT 3D Graphics Workstation Market Study 1999" is available now
and can be purchased for $4995 for the hard copy or $10,000 for the
electronic version (which includes a hard copy). Call Carol Robinson,
Sales Director at 415-383-1582 or carolr@jpa.com or Cindy Krause, Sales
Associate, at 415-435-1775 or cindy@jpa.com.
About JPA
Jon Peddie Associates was founded in 1984 by Dr. Jon Peddie, a
pioneer in the computer graphics and digital media industries. Today
JPA, a division of Penton Media, Inc, is the leading market research
firm focusing on these markets. JPA's analysis and market research is
relied on by a wide variety of computer industry professionals and financial
institutions. JPA publishes The Peddie Report and Multimedia Week as
well as a number of industry market studies.
About Penton
Penton Media, Inc. (NYSE: PME) is a leading diversified business
media company that produces market-focused magazines, Web sites, trade
shows, and conferences, and provides marketing and business development
services. Penton serves the electronics; Internet/IT; design/engineering;
food/retail; government/compliance; leisure/hospitality; management;
manufacturing; mechanical systems/construction; and supply chain/aviation
markets.
