(continued from page 2)
Chip Sets: Brookdale
In July, Intel revealed that it has plans for an SDRAM chip set
for its Pentium 4 processor family. This chip set is named Brookdale,
and is paired with the ICH3 chip. Brookdale will sample to OEMs and
board manufacturers in early Q2 ’01 and will go to production in late
Q3 ’01.
Current Intel documentation on Brookdale describes support for SDRAM
only, mentioning exclusively PC133. However, direct feedback from OEMs
indicate that when pressed, key Intel personnel will admit that it is
a dual mode design supporting both DDR and SDR at the component level.
OEMs will have to commit to either to DDR or SDR at board design time
-- both DRAM types cannot be supported in a single board implementation.
In light of the availability of DDR support, it is extremely unlikely
that any manufacturer (other than perhaps Intel) will do an SDR design.
Given today’s competitive market, and Intel’s probable
need in Q3 ’01 to aggressively recover market share, common sense would
suggest that a 64-bit PC133 platform design for the then "fastest x86
processor on earth" is a formula for disaster. DDR will be in
the mainstream well before Brookdale is ready in Q3’01. Intel does not
have to evangelize this aspect of the chip set design in order to enable
this transition. This gives Intel the emotional cushion it needs to
ease back into the path of the rest of the industry -- even if a bit
late.
Still, OEMs
speculate that at IDF in August, Intel marketing may hold to the message
that Brookdale will support only single data rate PC133. The story from
Intel engineering seems to be that Brookdale is a dual mode design,
but that marketing will decide when and how to reveal that to the market.
If marketing holds to the PC133 story at IDF, Intel may wait to reveal
its DDR capability until some time after AMD customers successfully
ramp DDR platforms to high volume production. If this sequence of events
comes to pass, Intel might be forced to artificially spin off a unique
DDR version of the chip with a different name in order to avoid further
embarrassment.
The bottom line is that Brookdale needs to be the “Pentium
4’s BX chip set.” The BX was designed to deliver flat out performance,
with all of the features required in the market at the time. It was
not manipulated by a marketing department, insisting that it should
be made "slower than Camino" or de-featured for some strange reason.
Intel is in desperate need of an unqualified hit, a decisive win, in
the platform department. If the marketing department can understand
this and let the engineers do their jobs, Brookdale will impress the
world with an unmatched ability to extract every ounce of performance
available from low cost PC266 SDRAM. The world might once again stand
in awe.
Chip Sets: Almador
Almador has been in the industry rumor mills for several months.
It is understood to be a DDR/SDR follow-on to the 815 chip set. It will
be used with Coppermine and Tualatin processors. DDR support, if implemented
at the board level, will boost the performance of the integrated 3D
graphics controller and offer DRAM bandwidth matched to a possible 200MHz
front side bus.
Though DDR
support in Almador would help it to complete with Athlon, SDR would
still have a place in low-end systems. We are at a loss, however, to
imagine what real advantage an SDR Almador might have over the existing
815 for the low-end markets.
As a side observation, the currently integrated 740 graphics accelerator
is showing its age, and Intel is in need of a new 3D graphics core for
integration into future chip sets. It seems unlikely that Intel would
re-architect its current 740-style 3D core. Rather, it is seems more
logical that Intel would search outside for a higher performance licensable
3D core from yet another third party.
Though there are a number of possibilities, a tile based rendering approach
(such as from Gigapixel - recently acquired by 3dfx) might be an interesting
option for several reasons. Tile based 3D accelerator designs can consume
lots of silicon, but deliver admirable performance with a very low external
bandwidth budget. We currently have no particular insight on Intel’s
future graphics integration strategy, but merely offer this commentary
as food for thought.
Next Generation Chip Sets
In 2002, Intel indicates two new P4 chip sets spanning the entire
system price range from $1000 upward. The original Intel version of
this diagram denoted the "Next Gen Mainstream" chip set as being "SDRAM."
Technologists will acknowledge that "SDRAM" can mean either SDR or DDR.
This is one additional piece of evidence that the term "SDRAM" in this
roadmap and its accompanying presentation probably means both SDR and
DDR. Does anyone really expect Intel to introduce a brand new PC133
chip set for Northwood in Q2 of 2002?
Summary
Analysis
In the ceaseless debate over DRAM types, this roadmap update from
Intel introduces additional vital perspective. We acknowledge that as
the Pentium 4 becomes available, Pentium III will move solidly to the
midrange. The market opportunity for high priced P3 platforms will quickly
dwindle -- resulting in a quick ramp down of 820 and 840 systems. Demand
will quickly shift to the 815 and to third party chip sets.
By the end of this year, the market for RDRAM in Personal
Computers will be restricted entirely to Tehama (and perhaps Timna --
the future of which seems uncertain to us). Over the next two
years, Intel’s roadmap indicates that RDRAM will be relegated exclusively
to platforms costing over $2000 -- dipping below $2000 in the summer
of 2002 based on a chip set that is not described at any level of detail.
Though it seems that Intel is finally re-balancing its platform strategies
to meet genuine market requirements, there are still some serious challenges
lurking in the woods. The "Dead Zone" is real and Intel is fully exposed
to an onslaught from Athlon+DDR.
Bert McComas
is founder of InQuest Market Research.
He has 15 years experience in technical marketing of computer chipsets,
analog and power ICs, and computer boards and systems.
back
to page 1:
The Big Picture and Pentium 4 Willamette
Intel
P4 Platform 
